A post-Kyoto analysis with the ERIS model prototype

Electricity generation technologies are examined in a global context with a multi-regional version of the ERIS model prototype with endogenous technological learning curves, developed within the EU/TEEM project. Impacts of Kyoto-like CO<SUB align="right">2</SUB> constraints are analysed considering the effects of allowing or not trade of emission permits. Complementary stochastic analyses addressing the uncertainty of emission constraints, demand and learning rates and a preliminary assessment of the effects of the geographical scale of learning are also presented. When technology dynamics are endogenous, mitigation policies stimulate technological learning of emerging marginal low carbon technologies driving the model to their early deployment. Trade of emission permits allows some of the constrained regions to take more moderate actions, but provides opportunities for penetration of learning technologies in different regions, contributing to their long term cost competitiveness. Early action appears to be effective in terms of long term costs and emission profiles. Uncertainties in emission targets and demands may stimulate technological learning as a preparation for future contingencies.