A PREDICTIVE MODEL TO DETERMINE ELECTION RESULTS IN INDIA

Dynamic socio-political scenario in the post-Nehru era motivated several electoral studies. Kondo (2007) can be credited to have made a review and consolidation of all ‘electoral studies’ of India. One factor which has been found common to all elections after independence is the participation of Indian National Congress (INC). There has been no study which combines the results of the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assembly elections as determined by various social, political and economic variables. This paper is an effort to study the swings of vote in favour of INC in every quarter under both the type of elections from 1977 to 2007 as determined by various social, political, and economic variables. A multiple regression model has been used for this study. Election results leading to governance of the state or the country by one party or a combination of parties, has very important implications. Hence, the importance of this study.