A Pricing Mechanism for CO2 Emissions that Incorporates Future Revisions of Estimates of the Cost of Today?s Emissions

The efficiency of mechanisms to control CO2 emissions is limited by disagreement about the harm from these emissions. Thus existing emission control mechanisms require negotiated compromise regarding either the efficient price or the level of emissions to be tolerated. As an alternative to conventional mechanisms, we offer a mechanism in which today?s price of emissions is determined by a market-based estimate of future beliefs about the cost of emissions. This reduces the uncertainty about the right price for emissions and makes it likely that emitters will base their emission decisions on more accurate estimates of the harm they cause.