A Proxy Means Test for Targeted Social Protection Programs in Sudan

This study seeks to support the efforts of Sudan in the targeting of the Sudan Emergency Safety Nets Project (SESNP) and any other future safety net programs in Sudan to those most in need. Sudan has faced numerous challenges for several years. Since its separation from South Sudan in 2011, the economy has experienced macroeconomic imbalances that have lasted for over a decade. In addition, the country has faced political instability, internal conflicts, and challenging climatic conditions. All of these challenges pose direct consequences to the poor. More recently, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis have only exacerbated the economic and social situation in the country. In this context, the number of poor and vulnerable is expected to have increased considerably since the last reported official poverty rate, which accounted for 61.1% of the population in 2015. In light of these events, there is a growing consensus on the need of social safety net programs in the country. The proposed program, the SESNP, is expected to provide unconditional cash and food transfers to nearly 2 million Sudanese people (i.e., about 5% of the population). To support this program in targeting beneficiaries to improve the poverty impact of the program, we develop a Proxy Mean Tests (PMT) for Sudan based on the National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS) 2014/2015. The results indicate that the use of a PMT could considerably improve the program in reaching those most in need, while reducing expenditure towards those with adequate resources. This could improve both the poverty impact, as well as the sustainability of the program