A Quantitative Exploration on the Determinants of (De-)Industrialisation: The case of Greece

The aim of this paper is to explore the main determinants of (de-) industrialisation, taking Greece as a case study. Industrialisation in postwar Greece measured in terms of manufacturing industry's share of output was not impressive. It reached its peak (20.2% of GDP) in the mid 1970s and, since then, it followed a declining path. Relevant theory relates the evolution of industry to macro and micro variables, stressing the role of structural change or 'trading up' within manufacturing. The regression results underline that the reasons behind the unimpressive Greek industrialisation performance, compared with advanced capitalist economies, are to be found in the low GDP per capita, the deep and long economic recession and the unfavourable manufacturing trade conditions. The preponderance of traditional, low technology, consumer goods sectors over high technology industries is also found to affect negatively the share of manufacturing, but its statistical significance is relatively small. The implications for industrialisation policies are that macro-variables should preferably be used, since micro-tools are not likely to be particularly effective.