A Quarterly Model of U.S. Dairy Sector and Some of Its Policy Implications

A quarterly econometric model of the U.S. dairy sector has been developed for use in short-to medium-term outlook and policy analyses. Simulations of the model indicate that it performs quite well both during the estimation period and during an eight-quarter interval beyond the estimation period. The model is used to estimate the effects of the recent 15-month paid diversion program and to examine some implications of three price support policy alternatives. Dynamic system multipliers are derived for personal disposable income, feed prices, cattle prices, and milk prices.