A simulation approach to the study of human fertility
by Gigi Santow
1. Introduction -- 1.1. Types and uses of models -- 1.2. Simulation models -- 1.3. The development of population models -- 1.4. The Monte Carlo technique and microsimulation -- 2. The Model -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. The choice of a model -- 2.3. The choice of suitable input data -- 2.4. Preliminary testing of the model -- 3. Biological Input -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. The probability of conception -- 3.3. Temporary and permanent sterility -- 4. Refinement of the Model -- 4.1. Introduction -- 4.2. Variations in temporary and permanent infecundability -- 4.3. Variations in the probability of conception -- 4.4. The simulation of Hutterite fertility -- 5. The Effects on Fertility of Breastfeeding and Sexual Abstinence -- 5.1. The relationship between the durations of breastfeeding and post partum amenorrhoea -- 5.2. The rationale for prolonged periods of lactation and post partum sexual abstinence -- 5.3. The theoretical effects on fertility of breastfeeding and sexual abstinence -- 5.4. The simulation of Yoruba fertility -- 6. The Physiological Relationship between Fertility and Infant and Child Mortality -- 6.1. Introduction -- 6.2. The estimation of infant and child mortality -- 6.3. The effect of infant and child mortality on fertility -- 7. The Effects on Fertility of Contraception and Family Size Ideals -- 7.1. Introduction -- 7.2. Models of the effect on fertility of the use of contraception -- 7.3. The simulation of Yoruba fertility incorporating family size ideals.
