A Study of Expected Demand and Aggregate Employment in the United States from 1948 to 2021

The paper provides interim results of my PhD dissertation. The research hypothesis is “Firms increase and decrease employment in response to changes in expected demand.” The paper seeks to answer the question “What are the determinants of changes in aggregate employment in the United States of America (U.S.)?” This is an important research topic because significant increases in unemployment can have a profound effect on an entire society, not just on its unemployed workers. When employment declines, public health declines, crime increases, suicides increase, and public revenues decrease.The paper uses quarterly data from 1948-2021 to estimate the effect of important macroeconomic variables on aggregate employment. The macroeconomic variables include personal consumption expenditures, U.S. federal government expenditures, nominal GNP, international trade (imports plus exports), M3 money stock, the minimum wage level, non-residential fixed investment, non-manufacturing employment, and U.S. federal tax receipts