A study of stock price reactions to the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on changes in the federal funds rate.

This paper analyzes stock index reactions to interest rate actions by the FOMC. Unlike previous analyses this study utilizes macro-economic indicators and accounts for pre-decision market expectations. Results indicate significant reaction of the stock market to the actions of the FOMC regardless of interest rate actions matching pre-decision market expectations. Binary dummy variables representing the five days following an FOMC meeting indicate a significant reaction for days one; two and three of the Dow Jones model and for day five of the NASDAQ model. The magnitude of the coefficients are 0.17%, 0.09%, -0.07% and -.15% respectively. These findings may be sensitive to a priori choices regarding the definition of the market expectation variable.