A Theoretical, Multidisciplinary View of Catastrophic Regime Change

Sustainable systems are those that can maintain a desirable regime in the presence of disturbance. Dynamic regime theory has been applied to systems in a growing number of disciplines to understand and predict system behavior, as well as manage system sustainability. A multidisciplinary analysis of dynamic regime models could benefit all disciplines, for several reasons. Given the difficulty of replication and experimentation in real-world systems, a collection of dynamic systems across disciplines and scales could serve as much-needed replicates. If endogenous variables behave similarly regardless of the source of exogenous pressures, and of the scale at which the system is defined, then general models, rules and coded behaviors can be developed. Furthermore, if the same basic theory regarding system behavior (including rapid regime change) applies across disciplines at multiple spatiotemporal scales, then models developed from these theories may help manage those systems which, at larger scales, cross traditional disciplinary lines. This result would support collaboration across disciplines to study the sustainability of dynamic systems. Here we discuss the mathematical basis for common dynamic regime models, and then describe their application to sociological, ecological, and economic systems, in a scale-explicit manner.DYNAMICS, GAMES AND SCIENCES II, DYNA 2008, Chapter 16, pp. 225-238, in Honor of Mauriacute;cio Peixoto and David Rand, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal, September