A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a micro-simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in California. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modeling vehicle transactions rather than vehicle holdings. The model is calibrated using stated preference data from a new study of 4,747 urban California households. These results are potentially useful to public transportation and energy agencies in their evaluation of alternatives to current gasoline-powered vehicles. The findings are also useful to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing alternative-fuel vehicles as well as to utility companies who need to develop long-run demand-side management planning strategies.