Accelerated Land Reform, Mining, Growth, Unemployment and Inequality in South Africa : A Case for Bold Supply Side Policy Interventions

1. Introduction -- Part I: Global real interest rates, economic and trade growth uncertainty shock effects on the South African economy -- 2. Is BRICS GDP growth a source of shocks or an amplifier of global growth responses? What are the policy implications for South Africa? -- 3. Global economic and policy uncertainty shock effects on the South African economy: Do these reinforce each other? -- 4. Heightened foreign policy uncertainty shocks effects: Transmission via capital flows, credit conditions and business confidence -- 5. In which direction is there a momentum effect in the changes in the spread between the repo rate and federal funds rate? -- 6. How do global real policy rates impact the South African GDP growth and labor market conditions? -- Part II: The Taylor curve, external shocks, labour market conditions and inflation expectations -- 7. The output-gap, nominal wage and consumer price inflation volatility trade-off -- 8. Output and inflation volatility trade-off: Do external shocks and inflation expectations shift the Taylor curve -- 9. Do adverse global trade developments shocks impact the trade-off between the inflation and output volatilities -- 10. Does the labour market conditions shock impact the trade-off between the inflation and output volatilities? -- 11. Output-inflation trade off and the issue of policy ineffectiveness -- 12. Do inflation regimes affect the transmission of nominal demand shocks to the price level? -- 13. What is the nature of the output-employment-unemployment nexus in South Africa? Evidence from various approaches to Okun’s Law -- 14. Does the consideration of nominal wage growth imply a high level of inflation inertia or persistence compared to consumer price inflation? -- 15. Wage and consumer price inflation during exchange rate appreciation and depreciation episodes -- 16. Is there a case for nominal GDP growth targeting in South Africa? -- Part III: Policy uncertainty, mining sector charter, exchange rate volatility, commodity price booms and busts, binding minimum wage increases and the mining sector -- 17. How has the intensity of the ability of commodity specific output growth to create jobs evolved? Implications for the mining sector as a “sunrise industry” -- 18. Is export-led growth a necessary but insufficient condition for job creation in the mining sector? Does this mean that there is a strong case for beneficiation? -- 19 The impact of mining commodity price booms and sharp exchange rate depreciation episodes on mining output and employment growth -- 20. The role of the exchange rate on investment growth in the mining sector: Evidence from the balance sheet hypothesis -- 21. The role of the exchange rate volatilities on the mining sector -- 22. The role of policy uncertainty low confidence and the mining charter in the transmission of positive shocks to commodity prices in the mining sector -- 23. What are the mechanisms and channels through which the mining sector adjusted to an increase in the binding minimum wage in 2014? -- Part IV: Accelerated land reform, the agricultural sector and implications for macro-economic policies -- 24. The impact of structural change on the South African economy: Evidence from the structural change indices and McMillan and Rodrick (2011) labour productivity decomposition approach -- 25. Land reform, redistribution and agricultural investment growth: What are the implications for the NDP output and employment targets? -- 26. What is the role of food commodity price booms and busts in the agricultural sector? Implications for monetary policy -- 27. What is the role of trade liberalisation and food commodity price booms in the agricultural sector? Implications for the export-led growth strategy -- 28. Is the agricultural sector sensitive to the exchange rate depreciation and volatility: Evidence from the balance sheet channel -- 29. How are the interest rates and credit supply shocks transmitted to the agricultural sector? -- 30. What is the impact of a binding minimum wage on the agricultural sector? -- 31. Can land reform help reduce poverty and inequality? -- Part V: The transmission of sovereign debt downgrades into the credit markets and the real economy -- 32. What role does business confidence play in transmitting sovereign credit ratings upgrade and downgrades shocks to the real economy? -- 33. Are sovereign credit ratings shock transmitted via economic growth to impact credit growth dynamics? -- 34. Does the cost of government borrowing transmit the sovereign credit downgrade shocks to credit growth? -- Part VI: Capital flow surges, sudden stops and elevated portfolio volatility shocks: what is the nature of their interaction with GDP growth and credit and economic costs? -- 35. What are the economic costs of capital flow waves in South Africa? -- 36. Capital flow surges, sudden stops and elevated portfolio volatility shocks: What is the nature of their interaction with GDP growth and credit? -- 37. Do bank and non-bank capital flows induce sectorial reallocation of credit away from the household sector? -- 38. Do banking and non-banking capital flows induce sectorial reallocation of credit away from companies? -- 39. Do equity and debt inflows matter in the attainment of the price stability mandate? -- 40. Do local investors play a stabilizing role relative to foreign investors after economic shocks -- 41. Do investors’ net purchases and capital retrenchment activities impact the monetary policy response to positive inflation shocks?.