Accuracy of the economic anticipating in a Nordic paper mill – a case study

The accuracy of anticipating is an important matter in a paper mill's supply chain process. This study focuses on exploring with correlation analysis the differences between anticipatory and actual paper demand, price and cost variables regarding a Nordic paper mill. The empirical mill data includes anticipated and actual economic variables from the mill to the customers in fifteen European countries during 2002-2008, covering 90% of the mill's sales. This kind of anticipatory-actual comparison has been examined scantily. The empirical findings show that forecasting on the mill level has been quite accurate, but between different markets there is much variation. The mill has not succeeded in estimating gross margins in many markets. This study states that a supply chain examination is worth integrating with the spatial context in order to yield valid results. Each market needs specific actions to be taken to ensure that anticipating is as accurate as possible.