Adult Social Care Workforce Analysis in England: A System Dynamics Approach

Changes in demographic and regulations in social care in England are expected to alter the social care landscape and increase pressure on people working in the adult social care sector, especially those who deliver direct care services. While significant work has been done to understand the demand side of the adult social care system, work on the supply side is considerably limited and analysis has been dominated by methods such as macro- and micro-simulation. This paper demonstrates that system dynamics modelling can be used to understand the dynamics of the social care workforce who deliver direct care services in the formal sector, specifically, to identify the main feedback loops that govern the dynamics of the system, to identify sensitive and influential factors, and to show non-linearity in the system. Therefore, system dynamics should play a more important role in the analysis of adult social care system.