Aggregating Consumer Surplus Values in Travel Cost Modelling Using Spatial Microsimulation and GIS Techniques

We propose a multi-stage modelling approach for simultaneously estimating the total number and aggregate value of recreation-related visits to a small-scale community forest in the West of Ireland. Simulated spatially-referenced individuals from a spatial microsimulation model for Ireland (SMILE) who reside within the forest’s catchment area are identified using GIS techniques. A travel cost model corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification is estimated for a sample of visitors to the site and transferred across each individual in the simulated population, using SMILE and GIS-based network analysis to derive the appropriate values for the RHS variables. We predict each simulated individual’s demand for, and value of, visits to the site and sum over the population to derive aggregate visits and consumer surplus estimates. We also discuss how the approach can be used to facilitate benefit transfer of consumer surplus values in travel cost modelling.