AIDS Mortality and its Effect on the Labor Market: Evidence from South Africa

This paper investigates how HIV/AIDS has impacted the labor market in South Africa, focusing on its effect on wages and employment. This is done by matching individual level data with group specific cumulative AIDS mortality rates. Exploiting the panel nature of the data, I remove individuals whose productivity is most likely impacted by HIV/AIDS, and find evidence that cumulative AIDS mortality has led to reductions in wages of between three and six percent for the African population group (Black South Africans). Furthermore, I also find evidence that the epidemic has lowered employment in South Africa. This result is concentrated among those with the lowest levels of education and employment. Although not large in magnitude, these effects are widespread across a significant portion of the population, contributing to substantial loss of income throughout the South African economy.