Ajuste de los fundamentos del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino

The aim of the present work is to examine the adequacy of adjustment of the monetary model in the determination of the Argentine exchange rate and its capacity for short term forecast. The results validate the relations postulated by the monetary model and demonstrate its quality in short run forecast, superior to a random walk model. Additionally, a model that includes a mechanism of correction of the error is examined, which has an extremely rapid speed of adjustment, accounting for more than 99 % of the adjustment within 7 months. Finally some comments on the possibilities of the economic policy are presented.