Alcohol availability and alcohol-attributable mortality : economic implications following a change in sales policy

It is commonly known that irresponsible alcohol use can have adverse effects. For some people it results in health problems, for others in productivity loss, and some experience the worst possible outcome of alcohol misuse: death. This paper estimates the effect of reduced alcohol sales hours on alcohol-attributable mortality (AAM) in Estonia. Using novel mortality data from 1997 to 2015, this paper analyzes the effect of the alcohol sales policy at the county level and at the country level. By applying the difference-in-differences method and the ARIMA model, this paper finds that at the county level, the policy decreased AAM by 1.434 deaths per 100,000 per month, which is a 37% reduction from the average AAM prior to the policy. The country-wide policy reduced AAM on average by 1.563 deaths, which equals to a 39% reduction. These findings suggest that individuals who are the most at risk of dying from alcohol-attributable death causes benefit remarkably from reduced alcohol availability.