Alternative trade and support strategies for CAP integration

The prospect that the nations of Central and Eastern Europe may soon join the European Union (EU) raises a number of questions concerning the treatment of agriculture under the treaties of accession. In order to analyze the implications of alternative accession scenarios, we construct a simulation model of the agricultural economies in Eastern Europe and explore the consequences of various regimes of trade and support policies under different scenarios concerning the terms in the treaties of accession. The analysis focuses on the relationship between different negotiated accession contracts, pre-accession agricultural support policies, restructuring in the agricultural sector, and sectoral performance. The analysis suggests that the choice of transitional policies adopted during the pre-accession period are far more important in determining outcomes in the agricultural sector than are the terms of accession to the EU. The prevailing attention to convergence with EU norms may be misplaced, and perhaps even harmful.