AN ANALYSIS OF HONG KONG EXPORT PERFORMANCE

The study models the Hong Kong domestic exports and re-exports, compares the performance of exports to the rest of the world, the USA and Japan, and uses destination-and-export-type specific unit value indexes to construct real exchange rates. In general, Hong Kong exports display mean-reverting dynamics, are positively influenced by foreign income and are adversely affected by high value of its currency. The lagged export variable, foreign income, and real exchange rate provide most of the explanatory power. Other variables explain marginally the variability of Hong Kong exports. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd