An Analysis of Progress with the Sale of Residential Developments

This article analyses residential developments using a database of individual projects for the years 2006–2010. Changes in the supply structure towards smaller apartments in recent years were identified in this unique database. These changes were probably a reaction to higher demand for smaller apartments, which also recorded the strongest fall in prices. The main part of the article contains estimates of so-called “sales progress S-curvesâ€. These estimates reveal quite a sharp deterioration in progress with the sale of apartments in 2009 and 2010. A model of the determinants of deviations of progress with the sale of individual projects from the estimated S-curve suggests the existence of unobserved factors that probably have an opposite relationship to apartment prices than expected. The other significant variables were apartment size, number of garage spaces per apartment and balcony area per apartment.