An Analysis of the Determinants of Thailand’s Exports and Imports wtih Major Trading Partners

This study investigates the impact of real exchange rates and related variables on Thailand’s exports and imports with its three major trading partners. The stationarity test results show that all time series variables in the models are nonstationary and integrated of order one. However, the cointegration tests indicate these series are not cointegrated. Therefore, Stock and Watson's dynamic ordinary least squares method are employed. The results show that real income and bilateral real exchange rates are crucial determinants of export and import between Thailand and its three major trading partners as predicted by a relatively vast literature in international trade.