An Analysis of the Shifts in the Voter Preferences in 2009 Turkish Local Elections

We study 2009 Turkish local elections to examine whether the economic condition was an important factor for the election results. We find that the economic crisis adversely affected Justice and Development Party (AKP) votes in Region 3, which consists of some Southeastern and Eastern provinces, and played no role for the Republican’s People Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) votes. Some voters who preferred AKP in 2007 elections switched to MHP in the last elections due to reasons unrelated to the economic factors. In addition, the regional and ethnic factors played significant roles for votes of all three parties. Finally, the data suggest that MHP has the most loyal voter base, and AKP voter base is more loyal than the CHP voter base