An Applied Study Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Translate Common Verbal Phrases to Numerical Probabilities

This is an applied study of how to develop a standardized set of useful verbal probability phrases for communication purposes within an expert community. The analysis extends the previous research in two ways. First, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to assess the relative weights associated with the verbal phrases employed by a group of thirty Financial Strategy experts at a major Wall Street Firm. Second, a quadratic least-squares technique is used to map these relative weights onto a subjective probability scale. The result was a consistent scaling of probabilistic phrases that the analysts prefer and actually use. This methodology can be used to minimize the problems associated with the use of probabilistic phrases by a group of experts who interact daily and who share assumptions, working knowledge and values