An assessment of China's joint prevention and control policy on sulfur dioxide emissions reduction : a spatial econometric analysis

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a typical pollutant that affects human health, climate, and environmental and ecological conditions. China has been experiencing high concentrations of SO2, particularly in urban areas, since the 1990s. In 2010, a "joint prevention and control" (JPC) policy was issued to address air pollution problems and strengthen the regulation of SO2 emissions. This study aimed to describe the mitigation effects of this policy on SO2 emissions in 116 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2017. We applied global and local Moran's I indices to confirm the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation in SO2 emissions and constructed four spatial models to assess the effect of the JPC policy in reducing SO2 emissions and its transmission mechanism. We found that the policy decreased SO2 emissions by 1.89 × 104 tons, SO2 intensity by 1.70 tons per km2, and SO2 per capita of 158.49 tons per 10,000 people in each city, on average, all of which are significant changes. The empirical results also show that population growth, economic structure, and environmental protection significantly decrease SO2 emissions. Finally, we recommended policies to encourage regional cooperation under the JPC policy, with the aim of promoting further reductions in SO2 emissions.