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An Easier Way to Calibrate

Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that “<i>K</i>-initialized myopic strategies†are approximately calibrated when <i>K</i> is large. These strategies first “initialize†by making each forecast exactly <i>K</i> times, and thereafter play, in each period <i>t</i>, the minmax strategy in a static game.
Year of publication:
1999
Authors: Fudenberg, Drew ; Levine, David
Institutions: Department of Economics, Harvard University
Extent:
application/pdf
Series:
Type of publication: Book / Working Paper
Notes:
Published in Games and Economic Behavior
Source:
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986618
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