An Easily Implemented Framework for Forecasting Ticket Sales to Performing Arts Events

This paper presents an easily used framework for modeling ticket sales to performing arts and entertainment events. Unlike existing efforts in this area, our framework allows us to: (1) model demand for events that consist of more than a single performance; (2) account for the influence of promotional effort on ticket sales; and (3) account for "sellouts" of some performances. The framework is applied to ticket sales for a university theater company, where it predicts ticket sales well in both an estimation and holdout sample. We discuss how the framework has influenced the company's marketing decisions.