An Econometric Analysis of Income Tax Evasion and its Detection

This article presents an econometric analysis of income tax evasion and its detection based on individual-level data drawn from the Internal Revenue Service 1982 and 1985 Taxpayer Compliance Measurement Programs. I specify a model consisting of two equations: the first measures the extent of evasion; the second, the fraction of evasion detected. The empirical analysis explores the effects of income, the marginal tax rate, and various socioeconomic characteristics on filer evasion behavior, and it assesses the variability in detection rates among IRS examiners. Finally, I use the empirical estimates to construct new estimates of the income tax gap; the new estimates are very close to the previous IRS estimates.