An econometric analysis of the lead‐lag relationship between India's NSE Nifty and its derivative contracts

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the lead‐lag relationships between the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty stock market index (in India) and its related futures and options contracts, and also the interrelation between the derivatives markets. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses serial correlation of return series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for studying the lead‐lag relationship between hourly returns on the NSE Nifty index and its derivatives contracts like futures, call and put options. Further, the lead‐lag relation between hourly returns of the derivatives contracts among themselves is also studied using ARMA models. Findings – The ARMA analysis shows that the NSE Nifty derivatives markets tend to lead the underlying stock index. The futures market clearly leads the cash market although this lead appears to be eroding slightly over time. Although the options market leads the cash overall, there is some feedback between the two with the underlying index leading at times. Further, it is found that the index call options lead the index futures more strongly than futures lead calls, while the futures lead puts more strongly than the reverse. Practical implications – The results imply that the derivative contracts on NSE Nifty lead the underlying cash market. Thus, the derivative markets are indicative of futures price movements and this will certainly be helpful to potential investors to design their risk‐return portfolio while investing in stocks and derivatives contracts. Originality/value – This paper is an original piece of work towards exploring the lead‐lag relation between NSE Nifty and the derivative contracts. The issue of price discovery on futures and spot markets and the lead‐lag relationship are topics of interest to traders, financial economists, and analysts.