An Econometric Model of the Circuit of Capital

The circuit of value outlined in the second volume of Marx's Capital provides a coherent framework for the characterization of macroeconomic phenomena from a classical perspective. This paper builds on Foley's (Journal of Economic Theory, 28 (1982), pp. 300-319) formal reconstruction of the circuit to derive estimable forms for its three critical mechanisms: the production, realization and recommittal lags. The entire model is then estimated for the United States over the period 1948-89 on the basis of the Shaikh and Tonak (Measuring the Wealth of Nations: The Political Economy of National Accounts, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995) data set, and the results are used to explore a number of current controversies, including (on the basis of simulation exercises) the consequence of various deficit reduction proposals