An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications

This paper re-examines the empirical validity of the Prebish-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufacturing goods. The empirical findings based on arithmetic and geometric commodity price indices are compared. When Grilli-Yang's arithmetic mean index is employed, the findings regarding commodity price trends are inconclusive. A new geometric mean index, in contrast, yields results that are robust.

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Year of publication:	1992
Authors:	Cuddington, John T.
Published in:	Estudios Económicos. - Centro de Estudios Económicos. - Vol. 7.1992, 2, p. 159-179
Publisher:	Centro de Estudios Económicos

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Language:	English
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005434706