An improved method for managing catastrophic supply chain disruptions

This article analyzes the differences between frequent and rare risks for supply chain disruptions, and proposes a new, improved risk measurement and prioritization method to account for the characteristics of rare risks. The varying idiosyncrasies of decision makers are integrated into this method such that risk management can be brought into alignment with an individual manager's preferences. Also woven into this tapestry is the notion of detection, which is familiar to those who have applied failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), but novel in the arena of supply chain risk management. Rare risks in the supply chain are, by their nature, unsettling: unforeseen disruptions are always present, probability estimates are imprecise, and comprehensive data collection is impossible. These difficulties are taken into account by the presented risk management framework. While the proposed ordinal scales are perhaps unsettling to many who desire greater precision, measurement methods must fit the precision that is possible. By considering rare risks along with frequent risks, managers can be better positioned to deal with the unforeseen.