An Integrated Assessment of the Productive and Economic Impacts Generated by Change in Climatic Variability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Area

This paper analyses the effect of climate change on temperature, rainfall, irrigation requirements and water availability in a Mediterranean area, integrating bio-physical and economic relationships. The probability distribution function (PDF) of climate variables shows that the near future will see an increasing probability of high temperatures and major irrigation requirements, with limited water resources. An economic model simulates the choices of farmers given the uncertainty represented by the PDF variability.. Crops suffer mainly due to more limited water resources, which can be counteracted by improving collective infrastructures for irrigation. Cow’s milk production suffers from the rising temperatures, which can be mitigated with cooling systems.