An integrated policy-based forecasting framework for land-use planning

Forecasting is essential in all planning activity; yet there are serious conceptual and methodological issues to be faced, particularly where public policymaking is involved. Forecasting methods in planning have varied widely from unsystematic and highly subjective scenario writing to the unimaginative extrapolation of trends. In practice, some blend of these methodologies is often employed. In this paper, it is argued that an effective approach may lie in the development of explicitly hybrid methodology which can blend perspectives on futures and provide a proper integration of policy expectations into policy planning forecasts. In the paper a framework is described which offers the possibility of overcoming some limitations of existing approaches.