An observability–controllability model of urban earthquake disaster risk based on system periphery theory

Urban earthquake disaster prevention is regarded as an integrated systematic engineering. Urban earthquake disaster prevention system is made up of all the earthquake disaster prevention activities. The concept and composition of urban earthquake disaster prevention system periphery were presented based on system periphery theory. A seismic risk-control mechanism model of system periphery was deduced using exchange rate of periphery as a dependent variable, and an observability–controllability model of system periphery was established and crystallized in its application to the quantitative analysis of practice problem. The input sets of urban earthquake disaster prevention system are determined as the maximum earthquake magnitude happened in or around the city, the measurable earthquake frequency, population density and fixed assets density. The inside state sets of urban earthquake disaster prevention system are determined as disaster resistant ability of buildings, disaster resistant ability of lifelines and investment dynamics in disaster prevention per urban built-up area. The system output is urban seismic risk. The calculative results show the model presented in this study can analyze the influence of system periphery intensity and inside state on seismic risk and can control urban seismic risk by adjusting the parameters of system periphery, the system inside state and human influence intensity. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014