Analisis Determinan Net Ekspor Indonesia

This study is to analyzing empirically among Indonesia GDP, trade partnership GDP (Malaysia, Singapore, US and Thailand) and real exchange rate toward Indonesia Net Export. To find out which one from those three variables is significant in order to fluctuating (increasing or decreasing) Indonesia Net Export either in the short run or in the long run. Data collection is obtained using secondary data, namely Indonesia GDP, Malaysia GDP, Singapura GDP, US GDP, Thailand GDP and real exchange rate for period of 1980-2007 (28 years).This research uses econometric model with Error Correction Model (ECM) which previously tested using Unit Root Test, Classic Test and Johansen Cointegration Test. To approach the long run estimation uses regression test with ordinary least square method. The result of the data analysis is showing that all variables were stationer in the 1st difference. Indonesia GDP, Malaysia GDP, Singapore GDP, US GDP, Thailand GPD and real exchange rate cointegrated with Indonesia Net Export. The result of data analysis uses Error Correction Model (ECM) showing the contribution of Malaysia GDP, Singapore GDP and US GDP were positively significant in the short run toward Indonesia Net Export while Indonesia GDP were negatively significant in the short run toward Indonesia Net Export, also Thailand GDP were not significant in the short run toward Indonesia Net Export. In the other hand, Thailand GDP were positively significant and Indonesia GDP were negatively significant toward Indonesia Net Export in the long run. Real exchange rate had positively significant in the short run and in the long run toward Indonesia Net Export. These facts showed the necessity of maintaining intense relationship between Indonesia and neighbor countries in order to increase Indonesia Net Export value to a better number.