Analysis of Intended Farmers’ Response to CAP Scenarios: Environmental considerations

This research is a result of the CAP-IRE project which objective is the understanding farmer’s reactions under CAP scenarios by 2020. In particular this research aims to analyze the role of the current CAP design on the farmer’s decision process focusing on several environmental issues. The analysis is based on 2,360 observations of household farmers across 11 cases study in 9 EU countries. Intended responses of farmers to the CAP reforms are analyzed by logistic model regression. According to the results CAP scenarios would influence farmer’s decision on fertilizers and pesticides, as well as water use, while the highest effect is found for decisions on number of animal rearing on the farm. Factors determining reaction to the CAP scenario are monetary and non-monetary, as well as structural and spatial. CAP role appears to be non univocal and strongly case-specific, as it substantially differs across regions according to their socio-economic structure