Analysis of multi-pollutant policies for the U.S. power sector under technology and policy uncertainty using MARKAL

Investments in power generation, pollution controls, and electricity end use equipment are made in the face of uncertainty. Unanticipated events can cause regret—commitments that in retrospect were the wrong choices. We analyze how three uncertainties—electricity demand growth, natural gas prices, and power sector greenhouse gas regulations—could affect electric power sector investment decisions and costs in the U.S. over the next four decades. The effect of multi-pollutant regulations such as the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) upon these decisions and costs is also considered.