Analysis of the correlation between the real estate loan stock and the average unit value of urban housing

Both the real estate market and the mortgage sector have had similar evolutions since 1990, with a significant influence on one another. In the first few years of this interval, the term „housing loans” was mostly associated with the state-run financing schemes for the purchase of such assets (the famous CARs), but after 2001 commercial banks entered this market segment. The products they initially offered were poorly adapted to demand, involving short maturities, high interest rates and impossible collateral, but soon the trend shifted and lending pushed up the construction of new buildings and that created an entire bull market. At the same time, personal loans helped fuel the population’s consumption for a significant time, but eventually ended up by being avoided due to the economic incertitude after 2008.