Analysis of the impact of decoupling on two Mediterranean regions

AgriPoliS is a multi-agent mixed integer linear programming (MIP) model, spatially explicit, developed in C++ language and suitable for long-term simulations of agricultural policies. Once extended to deal with typical characters of the Mediterranean agriculture, AgriPoliS is used in this paper to describe the implementation of alternative policy cenarios and to apply them to two regions located in Central and South Italy. Results suggest that the effects of decoupling policies in the Mediterranean agriculture, as implemented in the 2003 reform, are often dominated by effects of structural trends and only a "bond scheme" would substantially change the regional farm structures. In no scenario we observe remarkable agricultural land abandonment.