Analysis of the Impact of Global Uncertainty on Abnormal Cross-Border Capital Flows

This paper econometrically analyzes the effects of policy and financial uncertainty on abnormal cross-border capital flows with the panel probit model, further exploring the drivers of abnormal cross-border capital flows and their heterogeneity across economies. Results reveal that the occurrence of abnormal cross-border capital flows is clustered during periods of high uncertainty. Rising financial uncertainty significantly increases the probability of capital stops and retrenchments, whereas policy uncertainty does not have a positive impact on them. Abnormal cross-border capital flows in developed economies are more evenly driven by uncertainty, international and domestic factors than those in emerging economies, which are mainly affected by uncertainty