Analysis Of Promising Directions For The Development Of The Integration Of The EAEU, Taking Into Account Its Established Foreign Trade Relations

The object of the study is the economies of the EAEU countries, the EU and the economies of Russia's key trading partners.The purpose of the study is to assess the consequences (macroeconomic and sectoral) for the EAEU countries from the implementation by various countries of a number of provisions of agreements governing the functioning of potential integration associations that include the EAEU, and, based on the estimates obtained, to form a profile of foreign trade policy strategies for the EAEU countries, taking into account internal and external situations for choosing the most optimal integration directions of the EAEU.The method and methodology of the study are: 1) the use of various economic models to quantify the changes brought about by the implementation of certain provisions of the integration sites of interest, in order to incorporate these changes into a computable general equilibrium model calibrated on the basis of a database obtained by collecting and reconciling statistical data from conflicting sources using a special algorithm for guaranteed data matching created in the course of work on research. 2) using various methods of optimization theory to search for incorrect model closures and conflicting constraints in the script code, resulting both from inevitable programming errors and from the characteristics of the input data.The results of the study presented in this interim report are as follows: 1) a review of the literature on existing methods for solving problems to be solved in this study was carried out and a broad analysis of the literature was carried out aimed at a multidisciplinary range of issues that can be analyzed using CGE 2 models ) an analysis of trade in goods and services between the EAEU countries, Russia and key participants in international trade was carried out, 3) a description of the scheme and methodology for building a database is provided, which is used for CGE-modeling of international trade restrictions motivated by national security considerations against the background of external economic threats and sanctions pressure