Analyzing growth-management policies with geographical information systems

It has been argued that urban sprawl leads to inefficient land-use patterns with leapfrogging and low-density development in the urban fringe. Communities can implement a number of growth-management programs to encourage more efficient and environmentally sound development patterns. However, a long time period is needed to monitor the progress of growth-management techniques and to determine if they have achieved the intended effects. Unfortunately, urban development is mostly an irreversible process that leaves no room for experiment. As a result, we use GIS to simulate the impact of various growth-management policies on future land-development patterns in Portage County, Ohio. A comprehensive database and population growth forecasts are compiled to support the GIS analyses that generate a set of alternative residential growth scenarios. As a spatial decision support system, the GIS is found to be an efficient tool to simulate the form and process of development for detailed assessment and planning. As an educational tool, development simulation with GIS allows the generation of alternative scenarios to help citizens and local officials make sound planning decisions today, define future policies, and plan for new growth.