Analyzing of Relationship among stock markets of the US, Germany and Turkey with MS-VAR Model

In this study, the presence of dynamic relations among stock markets of the US, Germany and Turkey is examined by means of Markov regime switching-Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) model. Empirical results suggest that the MS-VAR model provides a better characterization of relation among stock markets than the linear VAR model. In addition, it is determined that regimes are obtained from the MS-VAR model can be named as bear and bull markets according to smoothed transition probabilities. Regime-dependent Granger causality test and impulse-response functions results show that the relations among the stock markets have varied due to bear and bull market periods.