And if one size fit all after all ? A counterfactual examination of the ECB monetary policy under Duisenberg presidency.

How did European Central Bank (ECB) fit the disparate macroeconomic needs of euro zone members? The purpose of this paper consists in providing quantitative answers to this question presenting an original methodology. After estimating unified frameworks of monetary transmission mechanisms for nine euro zone countries, we compute the national evolutions of output gap and inflation since 1999, in a fictitious context where the euro has never been launched. Using a loss function as a standard for macroeconomic stabilization, these simulations are then compared with the actual outcomes over the period 1999-2003. Our major result is that the ECB did a far better stabilization job for euro zone countries than national central banks would have done.