Application of the IS-MP-IA model to the German economy and policy implications

Extending the IS-MP-IA model developed by Romer (2000) and applying the GARCH (Engle, 1982, 2001) methodology, the author finds that equilibrium GDP in Germany is positively affected by stock market performance and real exchange rate appreciation, and negatively influenced by the expected inflation rate, the government deficit/GDP ratio, and the U.S. federal funds rate. The relatively low deficit/GDP ratio of 1.83% in 2003 indicates that its fiscal condition was healthy. However, some other EU members may need to exercise fiscal discipline. Because real appreciation has a positive impact on output, a stronger euro may not be a concern for Germany but may be worried by those EU member nations which depend upon exports to stimulate their economies.