Are the US Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?

We have tested for a long-run relationship between four US export measures and analogous import measures (measured in nominal and real terms, levels and deflated by GNP) inthe 1967-1994 period using quarterly data. Using various econometric tests that include standard Engle-Granger cointegration tests and two tests that allow for test-determined breaks in he cointegrating relationship, we have shown that the hypothesis of no long-run relationship between exports and imports cannot be rejected. This finding contrasts sharply with earlier literature and carries the important policy implication that US current account deficits are not sustainable.