Artificial Intelligence and Global Nuclear Peace : Policy Diffusion and a Potential Future Ai Policy for International Nuclear Safeguards

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has the formidable task of verifying the peaceful use of nuclear materials across the globe through cooperative measures called international nuclear safeguards. The Agency’s conclusions about lack of diversion, misuse, and undeclared nuclear activities send important signals to neighbors, adversaries, and global leaders that support international peace and stability. In response to pressures from growing verification mandates and limited resources, the IAEA is considering adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The adoption of AI in any organization brings significant policy questions. For the IAEA, these policy implications are expounded by the global scope of stakeholders and the considerable impact of their conclusions about states’ compliance with international nuclear safeguards. In this paper, I apply insights from policy diffusion theory to project and contextualize a potential future AI policy for international nuclear safeguards