As If or What? - Expectations and Optimization in a Simple Macroeconomic Environment

We report the results of a laboratory experiment, in which we observed the behavior of agents in a simple macroeconomic setting. The core question of this paper is whether standard macroeconomic models generate correct predictions despite their unrealistic assumptions of prefectly rational agents forming rational expectations. We investigate whether subjects manage to approach optimal behavior even if they lack important information. Furthermore, we analyze subjects’ perceptions of the model and whether their behavior is consistent with their perceptions. The full information model predicts changes of employment correctly, but not the level of employment. In the aggregate, subjects have correct perceptions. We finally show that deviations from the full information solution are due to optimization failures rather than misperceptions