As medidas não tarifárias constituem barreiras ao comércio? Uma abordagem global e multissetorial

This paper analyzes the effects of non-tariff measures on international trade, using a structural gravity model with 77 exporters, 63 importers, and all goods available in the 6-digit Harmonized System. Unlike most of the literature on the subject, we chose to estimate the effect of each measure individually, as disaggregated as possible, at the 2-digit level of the Unctad classification, amounting to 64 NTMs. The results confirm the expected ambiguity, obtaining both positive and negative effects, depending on the measure and product type. Most measures had statistically insignificant estimates, which could mean that the measures actually have no relevant effects on trade flows, but could also stem from limitations of the dataset or the adopted methodology. Some NTMs do have negative effects, including some whose clear purpose is protectionism, such as quotas; however, in practically all chapters of the NTM classification we could find measures both with positive and negative effects, so that even among similar measures the ambiguity remains - which reinforces the need to examine the effect of NTMs in a highly disaggregated environment, in order to avoid spurious results which could stem from aggregating in a same indicator variable measures with opposite effects.